Market Correction Headed Our Way….
Bio: Jay Katz, a comic book collector since 1983 and is the owner/creator of InvestComics LLC since 2005. InvestComics LLC was originally a magazine in 2005 before the website launched in 2005.
I remember back in the cool spring of 1978 in Brooklyn New York. It always seemed to be a bit cool when I was younger. Summertime seemed to have taken forever to arrive. Being eight years old, I really didn’t know time relevancy just yet. Time was relevant to arrive in a movie theater on one cool May night though. My father was bringing me to see a movie named ‘Star Wars’. I think anyone from that era young enough to recall ‘that day’ was changed forever. Changed in the sense that ‘geekdom’ was truly born. Star Wars was THE game changer of movie sci-fi. Not one child arriving home upon watching that film did not pick up their wiffleball bat, broomstick or even a tree branch and use that thing as a lightsaber. Not one. Every child and every adult was a Jedi. Everyone was a Jedi…..everyone. Changing the landscape of the film industry is no easy feat. Doesn’t happen very often.
After the Star Wars movie, there were many sci-fi movies that followed. Some were made very well, while others fell flat on their faces. No need to go down the list of successful movies and clunkers, we all know which ones are considered sci-fi movies and which ones were flat out failures.
Star Wars set the precedents for all sci-fi movies to follow in its footsteps. So many have tried and there have been many flatliners along the way. Thus, bringing an important question regarding today’s movie craze and its speculative hobby. Comic books.
Much like Star Wars, Marvel Studios changed the film industry in 2008. Marvel Studios went ‘all in’ with their release of Iron Man, starring Robert Downey Jr. Is it really necessary here to explain what happened next? No, but it was the beginning of a new era and the movie industry has not been the same since.
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Fast forward from 2008 until today, 2017. The top 20 Marvel Studios movies have grossed up to $5.3 billion (boxofficemojo.com). That’s only the top 20. Marvel Studios is on a roll. A very large roll, with extra butter. Comic book enthusiast/speculators almost ruined the Marvel comics brand in the 90’s and comics in general. Marvel Comics catered to the speculators with their glow in the dark covers – die-cut covers – metallic covers – 3D covers – number one issues – etc. Much like things are going today now. Not as much, but it sure feels like many of the gimmicks have made a comeback.
One major difference between then and now is the fact both Marvel and DC are playing with house money. Money to burn. Anything it takes to keep the comic book fan interested. The variant cover is the choice of poison this time around, more so than the glow in the dark cover. Fanboys are eating the variant covers up as though they will be worth hundreds or thousands in years to come. This thinking is so skewed from the truth that it’s why it’s the ‘fanboy’ making this error in judgment and not a real speculator.
Many of today’s speculators were born from the moment the 2008 Iron Man film hit. As each film gets larger, another speculator era is born. The speculative market is bursting at the seams right now. The speculative market is completely out of whack. Buying a ‘special’ ‘limited’ variant cover with absolutely ZERO significance within the context of the INSIDE of a comic at a premium is a huge waste of money, but flipping these things is as easy as pie. The movies have sure sounded the bell. The ringing can be heard over and over to buy that Apocalypse first appearance before that X-Men movie ever saw its first trailer, imagine spending hundreds upon hundreds of dollars on the first appearance of a character that would and HAD appeared in only ONE movie. But fanboys did it. Speculators spoon feed them and laughed their way to the best hotel rooms in Disney.
…InvestComics has always pointed out to stay away or get in super early on the one and done characters that will appear in ONE movie…
Today’s speculator depends largely on the movie market. An announcement is made about a character or a full-length feature and the aftermarket goes absolutely bonkers. No rhyme or reason for it, other than the fact….it’s a movie!! That’s it. No explanation, nothing, “it’s going to be a movie! BUY BUY BUY!” Wrong, wrong, wrong. Again, this isn’t the reaction of a true speculator. The investors are the supplier to the ridiculous demand. They know getting rid of that first Ajax appearance for a few hundred won’t be that big of a deal in a few months down the line if they wanted to repurchase that comic for their collection. It will cost 200% less than the last sale about 7 months ago. Investors are in the know because they read up on InvestComics (shameless plug!). InvestComics has always pointed out to stay away or get in super early on the one and done characters that will appear in ONE movie. We have made MANY readers a lot of money and saved them lots of cash too, because of this simple rule. One and done characters are an easy market if done right.
Sunshine and rainbows do not last forever in Hollywood World or any entertainment market
Here’s the main reason this article is being written this time around. There is a very serious issue on the horizon and I wanted to make speculators aware of it. As Marvel continues to churn away hit after hit, all good things must come to an end. Death is inevitable, right? Death will eventually hit DISNEY with a clunker of a movie. Marvel Studios is on a winning streak to the likes Hollywood has never really seen in its short life. Almost 10 years in and not ONE failure? Every single movie has done very well financially. The first Thor movie was a minor bump in the road, but what happens when Marvel Studios hits a snag? What will happen when Marvel Studios spends a whole bunch of cash only to break even or, dare I say it, LOSES money on a film. What then? Disney runs the show, right? And if history is any indicator, Disney does not pump brakes, they floor them when things do not go as planned.
A catastrophic event could be upon the entire comic book speculative marketplace WHEN, not IF, Marvel Studios does not reign in the money it was supposed to on a film the budget was extremely high on. Sunshine and rainbows do not last forever in Hollywood World or any entertainment market.
Walking Dead on AMC is experiencing their lowest rating ever in eight seasons. Wasn’t that romance supposed to last “forever”? Again, followers of InvestComics know that the call to start dumping some of your Walking Dead comics your hoarding started a while ago. No point on sitting on a Walking Dead comic that continues to decline in value. Cash out now. Get that same book a few years from now when the show is all said and done for even less, possibly. Once the Walking Dead movie makes a resurgence with a movie announcement (yes that will happen), then all of the comics that were dormant, that you picked up for much less, are now back in the game.
Back to Marvel though, because they are the ones running the table. WHEN, eventually one of their superhero movies flop, the entire superhero movie genre will be affected. But DISNEY already knows this and that’s why they are planning ahead. They aren’t stupid. InvestComics mentioned the kids’ group Power Pack would be right up Disney’s alley years ago. Disney announced recently they are planning on a Power Pack movie.
InvestComics mentioned the untapped Marvel horror genre, Morbius The Living Vampire was announced recently. There are more, but you see the pattern developing here. Disney and others are and WILL start to venture out a bit to get away from the superhero genre a bit. Not a complete abandonment, but a severe slowdown in the content providing people with capes and or superpowers. There are tens of thousands of comic book stories to be told that do not involve someone in tights.
When the stuff hits the fan, are you, the speculator prepared for the huge market correction?
Not trying to be dramatic or a downer, but the comic market has seen nothing but upside for many years and the correction will, in fact, happen when that first Marvel Studio’s clunker hits. The reverberation will be felt within the entire industry as the Disney exec’s slam the brakes and start recalculating things. Retooling their output, strategizing their next move(s) more diligently. The speculative market will react to this movement, as it should. Too many modern prices are completely inflated.
Be a smart investor, know your landscape and keep an eye on what the big mouse is doing. Disney is dictating most of this entire scene right now whether you realize or not. Enjoy the movies and enjoy your comics, that’s the most important thing at the end of the day. As the InvestComics motto states “Invest wisely. Read comics.” You live by that mantra, you’ll be good to go!
What do you think? Are we headed for a correction?
-Jay Katz
Jay Katz, a comic book collector since 1983, is the owner/creator of InvestComics LLC since 2005. InvestComics LLC was originally a magazine before the website launched in 2005.
InvestComics LLC is the number one speculative/entertainment comic book source on the internet. Their motto is: Invest wisely. Read comics.
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